Probabilistic Flood Hazard Mapping Considering Multiple Levee Breaches

Probabilistic methods are widely adopted for residual flood hazard assessment in flood-prone areas protected by levees. Such can consider various sources of uncertainty, including breach location and event characteristics, allow the quantification result confidence. However, possible occurrence multiple levee breaches during same is usually disregarded. This paper presents a probabilistic method based on fragility functions basic probability rules to estimate selected scenarios, breaching events. The classification inundation variables calculated events different return periods. A combined 1D-2D hydrodynamic model used simulations. extent maps level then created. Finally, estimates summarized map suitable central tendency level, coupled with Shannon entropy as an uncertainty indicator. pair statistical provides concise effective information reference along associated uncertainty. was applied region located middle reach Po River (northern Italy). Comparable obtained two sets or not breaches, higher if considered. highlights importance considering risk management.